Camille Sicangco
Candidature
PhD Candidate
Thesis Title
Keeping cool in a warming world evaluating the capacity of Australian vegetation to cope with heatwaves and chronic warming
Project Summary
Climate warming will alter ecosystem function. Process-based models are widely used to predict vegetative responses to climate change, but these models omit key processes by which plants respond to heat stress: experiments indicate that plants have evolved a series of physiological mechanisms to adjust to warmer temperatures, called thermal acclimation. My research seeks to address these model shortcomings and apply revised approaches to better manage vegetation into the future. To do so, I employ a combination of meta-analytic techniques, field-based physiological measurements, and predictive modelling at plant and ecosystem scales.
My thesis’ primary goal is to forecast impacts of warming on growth of rainforests and wet sclerophyll forests. To do so, I am improving representation of the temperature responses of tree physiology in LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs are process-based models that integrate physiological, biogeochemical, and other processes to predict vegetation dynamics. Current DGVMs lack sophisticated representation of physiological temperature responses, which could result in poor predictions of how overall forest growth will respond to rising temperatures. I plan to incorporate thermal acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration into LPJ-GUESS.
To ensure that my modelled predictions are grounded in experimental findings, I am synthesizing and measuring data on the physiological temperature responses of Australian forest species. I am conducting a meta-analysis of glasshouse experiments in which Australian tree species were grown at elevated temperatures. My goal is to elucidate how underlying physiological temperature responses scale up to the overall temperature response of growth. I am also synthesizing previous field measurements of physiological temperature responses for rainforest and wet sclerophyll trees, as well as stem growth measurements for forests along the east coast latitudinal gradient. I will use this field data to parametrize and test my model. Given that field-measured physiological temperature response data is sparse, I am also gathering additional physiological measurements at sites where growth, but not physiological data, has been measured.
My PhD integrates meta-analytic techniques, field-based physiological measurements, and modelling at plant and ecosystem scales to predict how warming will impact forest growth. These efforts will enable land managers to plan effectively for future changes to ecosystems and their functions.
Supervisors
Belinda Medlyn, Kristine Crous, and Ross Peacock