Post-election analysis highlights Western Sydney’s pivotal role

The Centre for Western Sydney at Western Sydney University has released its post-election analysis, reflecting on the crucial role Western Sydney played in the 2025 federal election.

Tom Nance, from the Centre and analysis co-author, said the region lived up to its billing as an electoral battleground, delivering some election night shocks with Labor gaining the electorates of Banks and Hughes from the Coalition.

At the end of 2024, the Labor government appeared on the ropes, with pundits looking at seats in Western Sydney, particularly its mortgage belt, that would provide the Coalition with a pathway to victory. The stunning reversal of Labor’s fortunes underlines how long a few months is in politics.

“Rather than limping to minority government, as was predicted, Labor delivered a resounding defeat to the Coalition, providing it with a strong mandate to govern in its own right and implement the policies it took to the election,” said Mr Nance.

“With such a resounding win, it is difficult to pinpoint any one reason that the Labor government had such a strong performance in Western Sydney. Strong messaging around critical priorities for the region, like access to healthcare and education played a role, however the Coalition’s perceived lack of policy detail may have also had an impact.”

Labor’s strong performance is evident in its 38.2 per cent primary vote in Western Sydney, marking a significant recovery and improvement compared to previous trends. This was in stark contrast to the Liberal Party’s 27.4 per cent share of the vote, which saw a dramatic decline of nearly5 per cent from the last election.

Sophisticated independent campaigns in Blaxland and Watson attracted a notable number of votes, however did not trouble the Labor incumbents. Dai Le’s success in Fowler, as well as surges for Andrew Charlton and Sally Sitou, demonstrate the criticality of ground up politics in Western Sydney. The 14.6 per cent swing in Hughes propelled David Moncrieff to a surprise victory, while 7.4 per cent swings in Parramatta and Reid helped Labor strengthen their foothold in these key areas.

The report highlights the rising importance of Western Sydney, with the region representing over 10 per cent of the national vote. Amid concerns about rising living costs, mortgage stress, and housing affordability, the stakes in the election were higher than ever.

Much has been made of Western Sydney's relative conservatism, based on voting patterns from the same-sex marriage plebiscite and the Indigenous Voice referendum. In this context, the swing against the Coalition—despite its often conservative messaging—is particularly notable.

“This again demonstrates that narrowly targeting messages to Western Sydney communities is a flawed exercise. Voters weigh their differing viewpoints against the broader political visions of both Labor and the Coalition, and vote accordingly,” said Mr Nance.

The Centre’s analysis notes that the Coalition will need to reflect on the narrowness of its messaging in Western Sydney, and how it might meaningfully reconnect with its voter base in the region.

Drawing broader parallels, the analysis suggests that in the context of a similar result in Canada, campaign strategists will privately reflect on how much of an impact the political dynamic in America is having on global political engagement and voting patterns.

For more information, read and download the Centre for Western Sydney’s Western Sydney Decides: Federal Election 2025 – The Result, here (opens in a new window).

ENDS

14 May 2025

Ali Sardyga, Senior Media Officer

Photo credit: Sally Tsoutas