Plot twist - film experts say the Oscars are anything but predictable

After a string of unexpected twists this awards season, the Oscars might be shaping up to be far less predictable than expected. Western Sydney University film experts share their predictions ahead of the ceremony.

Dr Adam Daniel, School of Arts

“The 2026 Oscar race has reached its crescendo, with One Battle After Another solidifying its status as the clear frontrunner in the major Oscar categories after it claimed the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Feature Film. The PGA win, combined with victories at the Directors Guild of America and earlier prizes, puts Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling epic in prime position for Best Picture, Best Director, and several other top honors at the Oscars in just under two weeks' time. Historically, PGA winners have closely predicted the Academy’s Best Picture choice due to their similarities in preferential voting.”

“One of the most compelling storylines of the season has been the tight races in the male acting categories, particularly Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. At the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), Michael B. Jordan pulled off a major upset by winning Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role for Sinners, edging out betting favourite Timothée Chalamet and injecting fresh life into the race. Jordan's victory, and Sinners’ win for ensemble cast, was a clear boost for the film’s momentum as award season heads towards the finish line.

“In Best Supporting Actor, One Battle After Another also enjoyed recent success via Sean Penn’s wins at the Actor Awards and the BAFTAS, however there remains strong support for dark horses Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo.

“In the Best Actress category, Jessie Buckley's sweep of the precursors makes her one of the most definitive locks in recent memory for her emotionally wrenching performance in Hamnet.”

A film and media studies PhD and Associate Lecturer at Western Sydney University, Adam completed his Masters in Screenwriting at Australian Film Television and Radio School in 2020. He is the author of the book ‘Affective Intensities and Evolving Horror Forms: From Found Footage to Virtual Reality.' Alongside his academic work, Adam has produced a number of films in recent years, including the AACTA-nominated short film Mud Crab.

Dr Benjamin D. Muir, School of Arts

“The BAFTAs reminded us that awards season is never as predictable as we think, so the Oscars may also be shaping up for a night of major surprises.”

“Sinners, which claimed both Best Screenplay and Best Score at the BAFTAs, appears well‑positioned to continue its momentum into the Oscars – though Hamnet is a strong competitor.

“Meanwhile, Marty Supreme has now tied the all‑time BAFTA record for the most nominations without a win, making its upcoming performance at the Oscars one to watch closely. It’s a competitive contender across all the categories in which it’s nominated, with a particularly strong chance in Best Casting. That said, Wicked: For Good may challenge it in that category, given the widespread popularity of its ensemble.

“If the BAFTAs taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected, and to celebrate the passion and creativity that got these films here in the first place.”

Benjamin D. Muir is a prize-winning writer, casual academic, teacher, researcher, musician, and producer. His novel, The McMillan Diaries, forthcoming from Vitagraph Publishing in 2026, was the recipient of the 2019 AAWP/UWAP Meniscus Chapter One Prize. His work has appeared in SBS Australia, Studio Stories via FBI Radio’s Or It Didn’t Happen,  Antipodean Science Fiction, The Conversation, Affirmations: of the Modern  and several anthologies. He holds a doctorate from Western Sydney University, where he teaches literature and creative writing. His thesis was on depictions of grief and trauma in Mark Z. Danielewski’s House of Leaves. In 2023, alongside Professor Anthony Uhlmann, Dr Bill Dunbar, and Augusta Supple, Benjamin co-founded Vitagraph Publishing and its journal, Written Off. He works voluntarily as assistant editor of the press.

For interviews, please contact media@westernsydney.edu.au.

ENDS.

11 March 2026
Photo credit: Alex Litvin via Unsplash
Lauren Coskerie, Senior Media and PR Advisor