Expert available to discuss what oil refinery fire means for consumers and fuel supply

Western Sydney University’s Dr Amanda Craft is available to comment on the oil refinery fire and its potential impacts on fuel supply, consumer behaviour and market confidence ahead of the ANZAC long weekend. Dr Craft can explain why highly visible infrastructure incidents often prompt precautionary buying, even when supply chains remain intact, and what consumers can do to prevent unnecessary demand spikes and uneven access across communities.

Dr Amanda Craft, School of Business

“What we are seeing in events like this is not just a physical disruption but a behavioural shock to the system. When a highly visible incident occurs, particularly one involving fire or infrastructure, it elevates perceived risk and uncertainty, which can trigger precautionary purchasing even when supply chains remain largely functional.”

“Evidence from COVID-era research shows these responses are driven less by actual scarcity and more by anticipated regret and loss aversion, where people act to avoid the possibility of running out rather than responding to current need (Sheu & Kuo, 2020; Yuen et al., 2020).

“This is where communication becomes critical. The evidence is quite clear that vague reassurance is less effective than specific, operational detail. Governments and industry bodies can stabilise behaviour by providing concrete information such as current stock levels, delivery schedules, and how supply is being prioritised across regions. Research on risk communication shows that transparency and specificity reduce uncertainty and dampen panic-driven demand spikes (Van Bavel et al., 2020).

“Without that level of detail, people tend to fill the gaps themselves, often assuming worst-case scenarios, which can create the very shortages they are trying to avoid. Ahead of the ANZAC long weekend, where demand is already elevated due to travel and routine stockpiling, this effect is amplified.

“The most effective response at both the individual and system level is to maintain normal purchasing patterns and rely on existing supply cycles. Over-purchasing does not increase total availability, but it does increase the likelihood of uneven access across communities.”

For interviews, please contact media@westernsydney.edu.au.

ENDS.

16 April 2026
Photo credit: Erik Mclean via Unsplash
Media Unit