Western Sydney: the battleground that will decide the election

A new analysis released by the Centre for Western Sydney at Western Sydney University, has found that Western Sydney will play a crucial role in determining the fate of the Albanese government in the upcoming federal election.

The report, Western Sydney Decides: Federal Election 2025 (opens in a new window), highlights that around 10 per cent of votes in the election will come from Western Sydney, yet many voters in the region feel that they are not receiving their fair share of government funding and services. Once considered a Labor stronghold, the region’s shifting demographics, economic challenges, and local issues have made it a fiercely contested political landscape.

Professor Andy Marks, Executive Director of the Centre for Western Sydney, said that how Western Sydney decides at this election will be a window to elections over coming decades.

“As the nation’s youngest and most culturally diverse region, Sydney’s West is a snapshot of Australia’s future,” said Professor Marks.

The Centre’s analysis identifies six key battleground seats in Western Sydney that will decide the election outcome – Fowler, Macarthur, Macquarie, Reid, Parramatta and Werriwa.

“If Labor holds its seats, it will go a long way toward ensuring that they do not become the first one-term federal government since 1931,” said Professor Marks.

“But if Western Sydney swings, it could provide the momentum Peter Dutton needs to be swept into power. These seats in Western Sydney will be central to deciding the Albanese government’s fate.”

Western Sydney voters are feeling the squeeze of rising living costs, mortgage stress, and housing affordability challenges. This frustration is shaping political sentiment, particularly in south-west Sydney, where Werriwa and Macarthur house a significant portion of the mortgage belt.

Tom Nance, also from the Centre for Western Sydney, said voters from these areas reeling from consecutive interest rate rises, will be critical in deciding the outcome in these seats.

“There are many voters in Western Sydney who earn an income that once guaranteed home ownership, financial security and family life, that are now struggling to make ends meet,” said Mr Nance.

“Cost of living, housing affordability and immigration will be the issues that define this election, which for many will be viewed as a referendum on which party they believe can help them seize their slice of the Great Australian Dream.”

At the same time, Labor’s rising stars are facing tough battles in seats that were once considered safe.

The analysis notes that Andrew Charlton and Sally Sitou, the members for Parramatta and Reid, respectively, despite their individual efforts, now find themselves fighting for their political survival.

In Fowler, Labor is the underdog, with Tu Le attempting to reclaim the seat from Independent Dai Le after the party lost it in 2022.

Meanwhile, Macquarie remains one of Australia’s most marginal and closely watched seats. In the 2019 federal election, only a handful of votes decided the winner in Macquarie. The seat is once again finely poised in the lead-up to the 2025 federal election.

Straddling the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury local government areas, the contrast in voting patterns within this electorate is stark. Victory for either side will rest on their ability to convince the growing cohort of aspirational voters that they have what it takes to govern.

“This Centre for Western Sydney report, Western Sydney Decides: Federal Election 2025, tells the story of how inequitable politics shapes voting behaviour in the region,” added Professor Marks.

With Western Sydney at the heart of the national contest, election night results from these battleground seats will be watched closely by party strategists, as the region determines not just who wins government, but the future direction of Australian politics.

For more information, read and download the Centre for Western Sydney University’s Western Sydney Decides: Federal Election 2025 pre-election seat-by-seat analysis here(opens in a new window).

ENDS

4 April 2025

Ali Sardyga, Senior Media Officer

Photo credit: Sally Tsoutas

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