[Bilingual] China is coming out the winner in a decoupling world
全球“脱钩”，中国将成为赢家
芮捷锐博士，前澳大利亚驻华大使，西悉尼大学澳中艺术与文化研究院顾委会主席
原文是作者发表在《澳大利亚经济评论日报》上的专栏文章
西悉尼大学澳中艺术与文化研究院研究员任翔翻译
Download the English-Chinese bilingual PDF version(opens in a new window). 点击下载中英双语PDF版本 (opens in a new window)。
现在看来，从疫情中复苏的中国将率先与陷入困境中的美国“脱钩”。
小心梦想成真。
就在三个月前，中国境外几乎没有冠状病毒的确诊病例，而作为美国遏制中国崛起的长远战略的一部分的全球体系“脱钩”势不可挡，澳大利亚政界对此做出积极响应。
病毒让这一“脱钩”进程迈出了一大步。由于中国远远领先于其他国家从疫情中走出来，中国或许将率先与美国脱钩。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，在病毒开始的武汉 - 在那里实施了严苛的管制规定，4月8日所有管制措施都将解除。具有讽刺意味的是，不久前特朗普总统如果不是彻头彻尾地不负责任，至少是虚荣地声称美国在复活节前就能结束病毒紧急状态。
近三周来，中国声称没有本地新感染病例（新感染病例均来自海外，主要是欧美国家）。在华外国人也认为，一切正在逐步恢复正常。一位在北京的美国朋友兴高采烈地表示，在封城数月后，各种社交活动再次填满了他的日程表。
英国《金融时报》上周晚些时候报道，在发达国家市场动荡之际，中国债券市场正在吸引各国大量投资。由人民币主导的债券市场被全球投资经理视为“避风港”。它不但是全球第三大债券市场，而且在疫情期间表现最为稳定，如同上证指数和人民币币值一样稳定。
对中国官方数据的可信度可以持怀疑态度，但中国政府的行动很具说服力。复工复产正在全国范围内展开，影院等公共场所也在谨慎地重新开放，甚至武汉市民也允许走出家门。人们乐观地认为，中国最糟糕的情况已经过去了，对国外输入病例的担忧促使中国全面禁止外国人入境。
这与世界其他国家形成鲜明对比。意大利和西班牙的死亡人数已超过了中国，如果将死亡数占人口的比例考虑在内，这个现实就更令人震惊了。在英国，国家医保体系的深层缺陷在抗疫过程中暴露无遗；美国总统与纽约州州长安德鲁·库莫（Andrew Cuomo）所发表的相互矛盾的声明，也凸显了美国抗疫的混乱。
上周日美国总统在海港挥手送别海军医疗船“舒适”号的画面成为媒体焦点，它将前往纽约执行救援任务。这位总统一如既往地、对这类有辱美国声望的行为熟视无睹。一直以来，这艘医疗船担负的都是国际救援和人道主义任务，它的目的地本应该是陷入困境的发展中国家，而不是世界上最富有的城市之一。
美国对于多边机构的不信任，为更大的中国影响开辟了道路。
自上周日起，中国计划派遣22架包机，每天一班，由上海出发，将紧急医疗设备将运往多个美国城市。现在是中国在向富裕国家（尤其是意大利，还包括美国、西班牙、奥地利和东欧）输送医疗设备。或许，我们不久就会看到习近平主席挥手告别中国医疗船的画面，而目的地是非洲或太平洋地区。
正如中国政府的对外强势总是触动西方自由主义的敏感神经，我们有理由相信，中国政府的表现会受到中国本国的认可和赞赏，也很有可能给全世界留下最深刻的印象。
上个月，本专栏指出，如果中国政府能成功赢得抗击病毒的胜利，这将会成为中共和习主席的一项重大宣传成果，成为党领导下的爱国英雄主义的胜利，从而淹没了早期对疫情的掩盖和吹哨人做出的牺牲。
如我所料，过去几周里，随着新冠病例数的下降，这些都实实在在发生了。在阳光明媚的初春北京，习近平戴着口罩，行走于北京街巷，对着满怀感激的市民们高兴地挥手致意。
中共敏锐地抓住了COVID-19疫情带来的机遇，利用中国抗疫的阶段性胜利来宣扬其全球领导力。但是，这一软实力的推进不足以弥补早期对疫情的欺瞒，这一行为成为导致中美摩擦的又一导火索。
韩国和台湾是民主制度下快速控制疫情发展的典范，但日本大概是为了保奥运，系统性的人口检测远远不足，从而导致病毒继续大量传播，引起其市民的不满。
尽管共产党的宣传机器试图占领全球抗疫的道德高地，但重要的是中国政府的危机管理，以及在其他国家之前实现经济复苏，当然韩国和台湾有可能走到中国的前面。
面对全球紧急疫情，G20作用有限，有心无力。多边行动需要大国间更深层次的协作，而这一点正是目前所欠缺的。 此外，在特朗普执政期间，美国对国际多边机构缺乏信任。这为中国扩大影响力开辟了道路，这一点可以从世界卫生组织在此次危机中的表现看出来。
北京可能并不怕全球“脱钩”，因为这一过程越来越遵循中国的步调。
其资本市场强劲、稳定，吸引更多资金流入，从而巩固了人民币作为国际货币的地位。很多国家感谢中国在抗击病毒中的支持以及国际领导力。中国在多边国际机构中的影响力比以往任何时期都强，这主要因为它在世界各地建立了牢固的双边关系，而COVID-19国际援助会强化这种关系。
与此同时，北京在雄心勃勃地推动一个以中国为中心的互联网世界。世界多数国家都在密切关注其与美国体系的明显差异。
China is coming out the winner in a decoupling world
It now looks like a recovering China is taking the lead in detaching itself from a struggling US.
Be careful what you wish for.
Just three months ago, coronavirus hardly registered outside China. The US-led push for “decoupling” of the global system as part of a far-reaching strategy to push back and contain China was building momentum around the world, and of course enthusiastically in Australian policy circles.
With the virus, decoupling has taken a giant step forward. As China recovers well ahead of the rest of the world, it may be that China takes the lead on decoupling from the US.
CNN is reporting that all controls in Wuhan where the virus began, and which has experienced draconian restrictions on people, will be lifted on April 8. Ironically, just before President Trump’s vain – if not utterly irresponsible – claim that the virus emergency will be over in the US by Easter.
For three weeks, China has claimed that there have been no new local infections reported (new infections have come from people returning to China, mainly from Europe and the US). Reports from the foreign community living in China suggest that things are gradually returning to normal. An American friend in Beijing, cheerily advises that, after over two months of lockdown, he has a full calendar of social activities in the weeks ahead.
The Financial Times reported late last week that in times of great market instability across the developed world, China’s bond market was attracting large amounts of investment from around the world. Global asset managers have assessed China’s renminbi dominated bond market – the third-largest in the world – as a “safe haven”. During this period, it has been more stable than most, as has the Shanghai index and the renminbi.
It is of course right to be sceptical about official numbers from China, but the government’s actions speak for themselves. Across China people are being encouraged to return to work, public places like cinemas are cautiously being re-opened and even in Wuhan some greater mobility for citizens is being permitted. People are optimistic that the worst of it is well behind. At the same time, fear of importing the virus has led to a complete ban on foreigners travelling to China.
The contrast elsewhere in the world is stark. Italy and now Spain’s respective death tolls have surpassed China’s. A shocking reality when considered on a per capita basis. The deep flaws in the UK’s underfunded National Health Service are revealed and the conflicting statements between the US President and, for example, the Governor of New York Andrew Cuomo only serve to highlight the confusion and chaos in the US response.
The image of the US President last Sunday on the docks farewelling the US Navy’s huge hospital ship Comfort as it heads to New York City on a rescue mission was extraordinary. The President, as ever, was oblivious to the national shame and humiliation of this act. In times past, the international community would have expected this ship to be going on a humanitarian mission to some distressed developing country, not one of the wealthiest cities in the world.
The US is deeply mistrustful of multilateral institutions, and has opened the way to greater Chinese influence.
In addition, 22 charter flights are planned – one a day starting last Sunday from Shanghai – of emergency medical equipment to be sent to different cities across the US. It is now China that is despatching medical and equipment to wealthy countries, including the US and most notably Italy, Spain, Austria and across eastern Europe. Expect soon to see President Xi farewelling a hospital ship to Africa or the Pacific.
As offensive to liberal sensibilities as the heavy-handed Chinese government’s response may be – and with good justification – the government’s performance is what will be recognised and rewarded within China and what will most likely create the biggest impression on the rest of the world.
Last month, this column suggested that if the government got on top of the virus it would be played as a major propaganda achievement for the Communist Party and President Xi’s leadership. The cover-ups and victimisation of whistle-blowers in the early stages would be subsumed by a narrative of a heroic patriotic victory led by the Party.
That is exactly what has been happening the past couple of weeks since the rate of new infections began to fall steeply. Xi Jinping over the weekend was walking the back lanes of Beijing in sunny early spring weather under a brilliant blue sky, merrily waving from behind a mask to grateful citizens.
The Party has also moved swiftly to capitalise on the turning of the COVID-19 tide by claiming global leadership from its apparent success. In this soft-power push, it has much ground to make up for its earlier deceit which has become a potent additional source of friction in the bilateral relationship with the US.
South Korea and Taiwan are also significant examples where the virus was expeditiously controlled under well-functioning democratic institutions – but not Japan where systematic under-testing, presumably because the government was trying to protect the Olympics, has seen the virus continuing to spread much to its citizens' chagrin.
Although the Communist Party’s propaganda machinery is trying to claim the high moral ground, what will matter more is that the Chinese government managed the crisis and went into economic recovery well before all others, with the possible exception of South Korea and Taiwan.
Once again, the G20 was found wanting at its last meeting in the face of this global emergency. Multilateral action requires a level of cooperation among the great powers that is completely lacking at this time. Besides, under Trump, the US is deeply mistrustful of multilateral institutions. In this, it has opened the way to greater Chinese influence, as we have seen with the World Health Organisation in this crisis.
Beijing may now see little to fear from a decoupled world which may occur increasingly on its own terms.
Its capital markets are strong, stable and attracting more inflows, in turn strengthening the renminbi as an international currency. It is attracting gratitude from many countries for leadership and support in the international response to the virus. It is exerting much more influence in multilateral institutions than before – mainly because of its strong bilateral relationships around the world which will be bolstered substantially by its COVID-19 aid.
Meanwhile, Beijing is pushing on with its ambition to host a parallel internet universe. Most of the world is closely observing the palpable contrast with the US.
